The June CPI report shows that inflation is accelerating, but at a pace that's in line with economists' expectations. The ...

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June’s inflation report will be looked at not so much for what the headline numbers show than what’s in the underlying data.

The headline CPI number, which includes food and energy, is expected to edge up 0.1%, slowing from the 0.2% increase in February. On a Y/Y basis, that would come to +2.6% vs. +2.8% in the prior month.

Inflation has receded from 2022 peaks but remains elevated. Here is a chart showing how the CPI—and the core CPI, which removes the volatile food and energy categories—has trended since 2015.

"Inflation in the United States remains on a downward trajectory. Over the past three months, the core CPI has increased at a 3.1% annualized rate, the slowest pace since September 2021.

Inflation isn't as bad as the CPI suggested, new producer price index data shows. S&P 500 futures are rising, but Trump tariffs will keep the Fed on hold.